The hottest Zoomlion lifting and rotary drilling m

Zoomlion: leading in lifting and rotary drilling machinery 2007

Zoomlion: leading in lifting and rotary drilling machinery 2007

China Construction machinery information

Guide: Based on the research results, core businesses such as truck cranes, concrete machinery and rotary drilling rigs were still viewed in 2007. At the same time, the continuous improvement of the average valuation level of the industry also makes our previous reasonable PE of about 17.5 times conservative. The PE calculated by current price and EPS in 2007 is about 17.3 times, so

based on the research results, core businesses such as truck cranes, concrete machinery and rotary drilling rigs are still waiting to be seen in 2007. At the same time, the continuous improvement of the average valuation level of the industry also makes our previous reasonable PE of about 17.5 times conservative. According to the current price and EPS in 2007, the PE is about 17.3 times, so we continue to maintain the "overweight" rating

from January to September, the growth rate of truck crane sales and main business income was slightly lower than that of Xu Erzhong, Changqi and other competitors, and the market share fell by about 1%. We estimate that quantang industrial zone is expected to be put into operation after 07h1, which will effectively expand the company's truck crane production capacity. The annual output of more than 3600 sets in total will bring a leap in crane business

the self-made chassis used for pump trucks is still in the process of road test and certification. We estimate that it still needs more than 6260 months of colored building materials. The company has also introduced several semi-automatic packaging production lines to complete the above work. However, even without considering the positive effect of lower pump truck prices on customer development after the use of self-made chassis, we predict that the company's pump truck sales will still increase by 18% to 26% in 2007

in 2006, the sales of rotary drilling rigs may exceed 25. In 2007, many high-speed railway projects entered the peak of pile foundation construction, which will promote the expected explosion of sales of rotary drilling rigs. It is optimistic that the sales volume in 2007 may reach 70-80 sets

main research conclusions

in the company's existing businesses, we believe that it is difficult for non engineering machinery products such as environmental sanitation equipment, tower cranes, machine tools and so on to achieve explosive growth beyond expectations in 2007 and 2008. Therefore, cranes, concrete machinery, road machinery and rotary drilling rigs are still the main factors that determine the future value of the company. Based on the results of this survey, our judgments on the main models are as follows: (1) the growth prospect of the truck crane industry is sustainable and optimistic. The revenue growth of the company in the first three quarters is lower than that of its main competitors and its share will decline slightly, which will be significantly improved with the completion and operation of quantang industrial zone; (2) The sales volume of rotary drilling rigs in 2007 is estimated to reach 70~80, with a year-on-year increase of more than 150%; (3) The sales volume of concrete pump truck will maintain an increase of 18% - 22%, and the market share will maintain a level of 30% - 32%

to sum up, we predict that the company's main business income and total net profit in 2007 will reach 5.516 billion and 635 million respectively, equivalent to EPS of about 1.252 yuan, an increase of about 31% year-on-year. Based on the continuous improvement of the overall valuation level of the market and the reduction of the basic parameters of valuation such as risk premium rate, we believe that the PE of about 17.5 times in the industry report in October has been low. Based on the current price and EPS in 2007, the PE of the company is about 17.3 times, so we continue to maintain the rating of "overweight"

the commissioning of quantang Industrial Zone in 2007 will promote the crane business to be brilliant again

the domestic market recovered rapidly from January to September, but the company's share fell slightly

the domestic truck crane market generally showed a rapid recovery trend in the first three quarters. The crane sales from January to September have exceeded the whole year of 2005, with a year-on-year increase of about 38%; We estimate that the final CAGR of the industry is about 28~32%, and the sales volume may be close to 14000, as shown in Figure 1

the company's sales revenue of truck cranes in the first to third quarters increased by about 31.8% year-on-year, slightly lower than the industry growth level, and the market share also decreased slightly from about 19.8% in 2005 to 18.4%, as shown in the following figure

the realization of the production capacity of quantang industrial zone will promote the truck crane business to open a new situation

we believe that the slight decline in the market share of the company in the first to third quarters of 2006 will be a short-term phenomenon: (1) the company and Xuzhong are the only two enterprises in China that can realize the self-contained bottom plate of truck cranes of more than 20 tons, and have significant technical advantages in chassis and top loading matching; (2) The domestic truck crane market will still maintain an industry growth of about 22-25% in 2007. The continuous increase in the proportion of products with more than 20 tons in the industry will ensure that the company's main products with 20-100 tons will face a sufficiently optimistic market environment; (3) The new production capacity of quantang industrial zone will be completed and put into operation after the middle of 2007, which will promote the leap of the company's crane business. The annual production capacity of more than 3600 units will reach the scale of XCMG in 2005

based on the conservative assumption that we will enter trial production after October 2007, we predict that the sales volume of truck cranes of the company will be about 3000 in 2007

the crawler crane market is in the ascendant

the expansion of the construction scale of large-scale petroleum, petrochemical, fine chemical and energy projects has promoted the growth of the heavy crawler crane market. In addition to Fushun Excavator Manufacturing Co., Ltd. and other established enterprises, enterprises such as Xuzhong, Zoomlion and sany technology have successively entered this market in recent years. At present, China has been able to manufacture 35~400 ton crawler cranes, and some technical indicators have reached the international first-line product level in the same period, with good cost performance advantages. The main business income of crawler crane of the company in 2006 will exceed 90million yuan. We predict that it will reach more than 130million yuan in 2007, with a year-on-year increase of about 44%

rotary drilling rigs: waiting for the expected outbreak in 2007

the research on the rotary drilling rig industry shows that the high-speed railway projects will enter the peak of pile foundation construction in the next two years, which will promote the outbreak of the market. We predict that the number of rotary drilling rigs to be purchased in the industry during the "Eleventh Five Year Plan" period will reach 1600~1900, and it is estimated that the sales volume of rotary drilling rigs of domestic enterprises in 2007 and 2008 will increase by more than 85% and 20% respectively

the company has sold about 20 rotary drilling rigs by early November. Considering the withdrawal and settlement of payment at the end of the year, it is estimated that the annual sales volume may exceed 25. We believe that the supply of chassis and accessories will be significantly improved in 2007, so as to ensure that the company will not have the situation of limited production capacity in 2006: in addition to the steel structural parts, the main components of domestic enterprises' rotary drilling rig products, such as chassis, hydraulic system, electrical system and so on, rely on outsourcing or import, which reaches about 70% of the value; In 2006, catpillar and other major component suppliers did not adjust their production plans in time, resulting in insufficient supply, which was the company's main capacity bottleneck. Judging from the current situation, the main component suppliers of the company have begun to adjust the production plan of 2007, so the supply of accessories in the future should be greatly improved

it is estimated that the company will sell 70-80 rotary drilling rigs in 2007, accounting for about 17.7% - 18.9% of the total sales of domestic enterprises

based on the average price of about 3.5 million yuan (excluding tax) and the net sales interest rate of 15%~20%, the increase in sales of rotary drilling rigs will increase the company's profits by about 0.06~0.08 yuan

the self-made pump truck chassis is still in the certification stage, and it still takes time to put it on the market.

the company has been committed to the development of pump truck chassis in recent years by taking advantage of its strong chassis design and manufacturing experience in truck cranes and other products. From the current situation, it should also interrupt the oil pump work. The sample vehicle is already in the road test and operation test stage. However, different from some market research conclusions, we believe that it will take more than 6 months for pump truck products supporting self-made chassis to be put into the market in batches: (1) the national heavy truck and special vehicle, modified vehicle chassis on the road need to complete a series of certification work; (2) Compared with imported chassis such as Volvo, Scania and Isuzu, the self-made chassis is still insufficient in terms of different operation and extreme comfort; (3) The reliability test has not been completed

the introduction of pump trucks with self-made chassis into the market will effectively promote the growth of the company's product sales and the expansion of the range of customers; On the other hand, the use of self-made chassis will increase the profit link of the company's pump truck products, which is reflected in the improvement of gross profit margin. The pump truck pricing generally adopts the mechanism of separating the top and chassis. The pump truck price varies according to the chassis model specified by the customer. It is estimated that the unit price of Zoomlion self-made chassis should be about 300000 yuan, about 40% lower than that of outsourced chassis/250000 yuan; We believe that the reduction in chassis costs will be mainly reflected in the decline in the overall price of pump trucks, which will help customers reduce procurement costs and achieve the purpose of expanding potential users and promoting sales growth

even without considering the sales growth driven by the launch of self-made site pump trucks, we believe that the prospects of the pump truck industry in 2007 are still cautiously optimistic. Based on the preliminary prediction results of the growth rate of the total amount of cast-in-place concrete, we estimate that the pump truck industry will grow by more than 17% or higher in 2007, and advantageous enterprises such as Sany, Zoomlion and Shanghai Putzmeister are expected to further strengthen their leading position. The estimated sales volume of Zoomlion concrete pump trucks in 2007 is about 590~630, with a year-on-year increase of about 18%~26%; The total sales volume of concrete towing pumps and mixing trucks was about 1100, with a year-on-year increase of about 15.1%

the current valuation is still attractive, maintaining the "overweight" rating

based on the results of this survey, we adjusted the sales volume and unit price forecast of each product in the next two years. The adjusted revenue, sales volume and gross profit margin of each product are shown in the following table. Considering the tightening orientation of macro policies and the seasonal characteristics of construction machinery industry sales from October to December, we expect that the sales revenue will be slightly lower than the level of the first three quarters, and the main business revenue CAGR in 2007 and 2008 are about 28.7% and 18.8% respectively

the continuous improvement of the overall average valuation level of the industry and market will lead to the reduction of risk premium and other parameters in the discount model. Therefore, the PE estimated by us in the industry report in October of about 17.5 times has become conservative. Based on the current price and EPS in 2007, Zoomlion PE is about 17.3 times, so we maintain the rating of "overweight"