Sales volume behind the hard landing of the hottes

Behind the "hard landing" of the wheat harvester Market: sales hit a 13 year low

amazing! In the first half of this year, the sales volume of domestic wheeled wheat harvesters was less than 18000 units, with a decline of 37.9%. As more than 97% of the sales of wheat harvesters were concentrated in the first half of the year, this data almost represents the level of the whole year of this year and has become the new low of annual sales in the past 13 years. This result was too much than expected, which really surprised all industry personnel who had relatively optimistic judgments about the market at the beginning of the year

as the category of crop operation machinery with the earliest development and the fastest improvement in China, the wheat combine harvester was also the first to enter the demand saturation period, and took the lead in becoming one of the most typical product representatives in the stock market of the agricultural machinery industry. However, in the face of such an unexpected sharp decline and such a downward trend, it seems that it is suddenly unacceptable, and those predictions in all aspects have become elusive

in the development process of the domestic agricultural machinery market, the wheat harvester can be described as a well deserved "star category" on the stage of the machinery industry. From the "popular" small fresh meat to today's "out of breath" sausage, this process reflects the subsidy development characteristics of the transition between the subsidy market and the natural market

looking at the development and change process of domestic wheat machine market since 2004, it can be divided into three stages

the first stage, before 2009. During this period, the construction of the overall market demand platform was completed, and the mechanization of domestic wheat harvest developed rapidly

there are three significant characteristics in this stage:

first, subsidies determine the market. There are three points to prove. (1) in 2005, the state subsidy fund increased from 7000 yuan in 2004 to 30000 yuan, the largest increase of 328.6% in the history of domestic agricultural machinery subsidies. In that year, the market sales of wheat machinery increased from 17000 units to more than 31000 units, with an increase of 83.53%, which also became the largest increase in the following 13 years. (2) At the end of 2006, the state announced the cancellation of wheat machine subsidies, and the sales volume fell for two consecutive years in 2007 and 2008. In 2007, it also created the largest decline in recent 15 years, with a year-on-year decline of 51.97%. (3) In 2009, the No. 1 central document pointed out that it was necessary to accelerate the promotion of mechanization and establish an economic compensation system for the scrapping of high-energy agricultural machinery. At the same time, it stipulated that agricultural machinery and tools that are advanced and applicable, mature in technology, safe and reliable, energy-saving and environmental protection, and in place services should be included in the subsidy catalogue. At the same time, the subsidy fund entered the 10 billion yuan channel of 13billion yuan from 4billion yuan in 2008. At the same time, the wheat machine also broke out because of the disguised subsidy of wheat and corn harvester. The sales volume of that year exceeded 60000 units, reaching the peak of annual sales volume of the wheat machine market since the beginning of history

second, "unit 2" is the mainstream, and multiple models coexist. This stage is a period of development in which a variety of products such as backpack, self-propelled and simple types coexist. On the whole, with the improvement of user recognition, wheeled self-propelled machines are widely recognized. The mainstream products in the Central Plains region are 2kg/s and 2.5kg/s feeding amounts (that is, the Xinjiang-2 model often referred to in the industry), and the northeast, Xinjiang and other large-scale operation areas are 3kg/s and 4kg/s feeding amounts

to avoid rust

third, the market is monopolized, and cross regional operations rise and rise rapidly. Speaking of wheat machine, I have to mention "Lovol Ceres". Since 2006, its market monopoly has been fully consolidated. At its peak, its market share reached 76%. With the growth of the wheat machine market, large-scale cross regional operations continued to rise and rapidly heated up during the "three summers". The "wheat customers" who operate harvesters to harvest wheat professionally span the north and south, and once became a social hot spot. At the same time, Lovol The manufacturing enterprises led by Dongfanghong have also organized large-scale "three summer" special services for years, and used them to build their own service brands

the second stage, 2010-2013. The product demand has been comprehensively upgraded, the feeding volume has increased, and the longitudinal axial flow products have begun to start

this stage also has three remarkable characteristics:

first, the market is saturated and the development has entered a stable period. Since 2010, the annual demand of wheeled grain harvesters has remained at an adjustment stage of about 40000 units for three consecutive years, and the degree of market saturation is increasingly apparent. According to statistics, by 2013, the social ownership of domestic rice and wheat harvesters had reached 1.134 million units, which has fully met the market demand

second, the feeding volume increased and the product echelon was upgraded. An important feature of this stage is the step-by-step upgrading of wheat machine products, which has achieved great improvement in feeding volume, performance, comfort and maturity. During this period, the feeding volume in Central China rose to 3kg/4 After conditioning, the demand for s, 4kg/s, 5 kg/s products, 6kg/s, 7kg/s in Northeast, Xinjiang and other large-scale operation areas does not exist for PCL implants. At the same time, the domestic longitudinal axial-flow models have entered the initial stage of the market

third, leading enterprises lead the market, and cross regional earnings are weakening. During this period, Lovol Valley God continued to lead and monopolize the market. Due to the increase of ownership, the income of cross regional operation users was uneven

the third stage, since 2014

entering the stage of demand structure adjustment in an all-round way, it shows three characteristics:

first, the subsidy effect decreases, and rigid demand directly determines the market direction. Since 2014, the agricultural machinery market has started the process of structural adjustment. As one of the traditional and mature categories of the market, the subsidy pulling effect of wheat machinery is no longer obvious. Market renewal and rigid demand have become the decisive factors, entering the continuous decline channel of sales, and the market incremental demand has gradually shifted to stock renewal

second, the longitudinal axial flow technology is gradually improved, and large-scale and composite products are popular. At this stage, domestic wheat machine products are being upgraded from the tangential flow drum plus longitudinal axial flow single and double drum threshing and separation technology to the longitudinal axial flow drum threshing and separation technology. The R & D and manufacturing capacity of high-end products with 12kg/s feeding capacity and longitudinal axial flow products are significantly improved. In terms of operation functions, they can harvest not only wheat, but also corn, sunflower, soybean, rape and other crops, and truly move towards composite operation products. In the Central Plains region, the feeding volume has increased to 7 kg/s and 8kg/s products, and in the northeast, Xinjiang and other large-scale operation areas, the feeding volume has been upgraded to 10kg/s and above products, and the large-scale trend is becoming more and more obvious

third, the market pattern has fundamentally changed from "one dominant company" to "two co governance". At this stage of development, "Zoomlion Valley king" was born, and quickly grew into a first-line brand, keeping pace with "Lovol Valley God" and jointly monopolizing 70-80% of the market share. Not only that, another national agricultural machinery manufacturing giant Yituo increased its capital by 190million yuan in 2016 to control Luoyang Zhongshou, and strongly entered the field of wheat and corn harvesters. For a time, the originally saturated grain combine harvester market was full of smoke and strife. During this period, the combination of user cross region operation and "Internet +" shows new features of intellectualization. However, there are more monks than soldiers, and the user income has decreased significantly. This year, half of the user income is far from reaching the expectation

focus on the present. In the first half of this year, the market sales of wheat harvesters are even lower than the level of 22000 units in 2007, which is equivalent to the level of 2004 (the market sales of 17000 units that year). However, we cannot only focus on the number of units sold. Behind the sales, there is a more qualitative evaluation. It should be said that at present, domestic wheat harvesters have entered a relatively mature stage of technology, products and services, large and medium-sized The comprehensive popularization of composite products, the overall operation efficiency has been improved by several times. In addition, the market has been saturated for consecutive years, the number of grain combine harvesters has exceeded 1.3 million, and the yield of wheat harvesters has reached 95.5%. The market increment market has become very limited. At the same time, in the rice wheat rotation area, buyers are increasingly inclined to crawler type longitudinal axial flow full feed rice harvesters to harvest wheat, so as to realize the multi-purpose of one machine and prolong the operation time, Improve revenue, especially this year, during the wheat harvest season, there are more rainy days in Anhui and other places, and the crawler harvester has obvious advantages in anti sinking, replacing some of the share of wheeled harvesters. In addition, the unstable wheat price last year affected the confidence of farmers this year, the income of agricultural machinery users fell, and the enthusiasm for wheat machinery investment was as low as freezing point. With the superposition of multiple factors, the wheat machine market suddenly fell to the bottom of the cliff, resulting in a rare "hard landing"

it can be concluded from mechanical experiments that in the next two years, weakening, low-level and low-speed operation may become the new normal for the development of the wheat machine market